It’s Easton Stick vs. Jarrett Stidham tonight in Week 17 as the Los Angeles Chargers visit the Denver Broncos, who are moving on from Russell Wilson in what should be called a business decision. The Broncos and Stidham still enter as a 3.5-point favorite — down from -5.5 earlier in the week and before the announcement.
It’s never easy for books to set totals with new quarterbacks, but they got it wrong with the opening line on Stidham’s rushing yards basing it off a small sample size from last season. It’s time to hit that Under in what could be an ugly game.
I break down the Week 17 NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Chargers vs. Broncos on Sunday, December 31.
Chargers vs Broncos odds
Chargers vs Broncos predictions
It may be Jarrett Stidham’s first start this season and third in his career, but to open his rushing total at 25.5 yards is just too high with very little data to go off of. Consider that Josh Allen’s rushing yards opened at 27.5 this week, and as of Saturday afternoon, only four other quarterbacks have a longer rushing total than the Denver Broncos starter (Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, and Allen).
That has me hitting the Jarrett Stidham odds of Under 25.5 rushing yards at -115 with some confidence for the Sunday game. Russell Wilson ranks seventh among QBs in rushing yards on the season and his rushing total has closed at 24.5 or lower in every game this year.
Stidham has two starts to his name, which came last year with the Raiders. He had 14 carries for 84 yards in those two starts, which is why the books opened this line so high. However, as noted above, this is a big number, and playing with a new team won’t guarantee he sees the same volume.
Denver is one of the lowest-volume passing teams, as they are just one of five clubs that average fewer than 30 passes a game. With a lower passing volume comes a lower scramble rate, and scrambles account for the majority of QB rushing yardage. This is working against Stidham, who threw the ball 34 and 36 times, respectively, in his two starts last year. Wilson attempted more than 35 passes a game this year just twice over 15 games.
I seldom hit QB Under rushing props, but this is not the right number for a QB with very little data to formulate a total with.
My best bet: Jarrett Stidham Under 25.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Chargers vs Broncos same-game parlay
Jarrett Stidham Under 23.5 rushing yardsChargers +3.5Under 36.5
+473 at FanDuel
Stidham’s rushing yards are two yards shorter at FanDuel, but it’s still too big of a number and the price for an SGP here is better than what you can get at books that have the 25.5 line.
This spread could touch 3 if the Broncos enter the game without their Top-3 receivers. This is also a Denver team that has been very distracted this week and on a 1-3 SU skid following that five-game winning streak. I have no idea where points are going to come from here, and expect the Broncos to continue to play slow, run the ball, and eat the clock.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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